Fergus Cassidy

Ups and downs

WHETHER it's the pollen count in the garden or just staring at a computer screen for too long, something is messing my eyes up. So instead, I decided to switch to staring into a crystal ball. This eased the strain on my eyes put replaced it with a strain on my brain.

Gazing into the future, say the next five years or so, is very like picking national lottery numbers. Whatever system is used - random numbers or numbers based on personal reasons - it really doesn't matter. The odds work out pretty much the same.

The mathematical route, however, does have a little bit of science clinging to it for dear life. Looking for patterns in numbers - how often they come up, sequences etc - got its day in the sun when the national lottery systems first appeared in the US and Europe. Designed to shorten the odds as best as possible, the maths system was quickly replaced by a more accessible theory: single digit balls where 'heavier' than double-digit ones. And by the same... ahem... logic , 11 would be a lighter ball than, say, 39.

When it comes to the internet, I tend to go with the pattern theory. My own version of the pattern theory is based on the fact that if something happened once before then the chances are it might happen again sometime. Not earthshaking news I know, but going over the same old ground seems to be an important part of human nature and there's no accounting for that. Yet.

Here's what I mean. Television arrives on the scene: good. It takes over our lives: bad. More stations arrive, more choice: good. Same old programmes, more crap: bad. Mobile phones arrive: good. Mobile phone health, safety and etiquette issues: bad. And on it goes.

There always seems to come a time when the zeal for a popular technology begins to seriously dampen down. I call it the tech trough. And right now the internet still has some ways to go to ride out the current downward curve.

All the aspirations, illusions and expectations of the most important mass communications technology since the telephone itself, have not only been swept away but are being replaced with doubts about its immediate future.

The current 'crisis' over spam has reached the pages and airwaves of mass media, sometimes on a daily basis. It's only taken less than five years to replace the awe at email with the awfulness of spam. So much so that the canard of whether email will survive at all is out loose and in the wild.

The internet has reached the second big trough since its birth and this one comes not too far behind the previous stock market sundering. This one though, has registered far higher with individual users than did the dotcom delirium. The good stuff has melded into the background, while the bad stuff has moved into the spotlight. Just like recorded music, television and video games in their day.

The problems with previous technologies such as the above were sorted out eventually. Things settle down to some degree and the technologies are acclaimed by adoption. Downsides can be tolerated if the advantages are great enough.

These are the past patterns it's possible to see in various types of communications technology up to now. Is such a pattern applicable to the net? Will the problems be sorted out? I think most of them will. But the solutions may be based on previous media models, all of which were one-way broadcast systems. That's what society is accustomed to. It's been the default position since the middle of the last century. The internet follows this pattern as well to some degree.

Connection speeds are faster for downloading than uploading. It's the same school that produced the 'content is king' mantra once beloved of the spooferati. The vast majority of the attention that the net receives in the mass media is about where to go, what to see and what to download. Ask the question 'what is the internet useful for' and if the words 'tickets', 'CDs' or 'sex' don't come back in the first sentence, then I'm a monkey's (sorry chimpanzee's) uncle.

Two-way broadcasting is still very, very new, and in many ways we're not ready for it. Many generations have grown up unquestionably taking for granted that media is something that they consume rather than contribute to as well.

It will take some time for that to change and for me the immediate future will involve problem-solving based largely on the one-way notion of the internet and tackling the content delivery problems that quickly become crises.

Pretty soon we may see the popular emergence in this part of the world of the 'walled garden' internet. Safer, securer and very successful.

Internet Lite could prove very attractive over the next five years. With ISPs and content providers linking together much closer and providing services where subscribers can choose what they see or do from a set menu. Fine.

What isn't fine though is re-configuring the network in favour of the download channel at the expense of the upload one. One of the biggest challenges facing the net over the next few years will not necessarily be in solving some of the current crop of problems, but doing so without damaging the extraordinary potential of this unique invention.


GO WAN... GO WAN... GO WAN
This coming Saturday (28) IrishWAN will be holding a national conference in Limerick.

Set up to bring together people interested in wireless access to the net, IrishWAN has made great headway considering it has only been around for a couple of years. The group's future potential is even greater.

To me though, one of the best aspects of the emergence of community-based groups like IrishWAN is the pooling of experience, resources and information by hundreds of members throughout Ireland. Outside of the membership, there are many many people who have benefited from the amount of information and help available from the group.

The conference runs from 12am to 5.30pm in the Two Mile Inn, Ennis Road, Limerick. Registration is Euro5.

Topics in the provisional agenda include: building wireless on a budget and how to connect to the net using a laptop.

If you want to get a glimpse of the potential of two-way media, then look no further. Details on the conference, including directions, accomodation and travel, are at IrishWAN.org.