Fergus Cassidy

Big leap year

On the back of some major decisions taken last year, 2004 (especially the first half) could see big changes in Ireland's telecommunications and broadcasting infrastructure.

In telecoms, there is some crucial work that really needs to be followed through. Take the so-called Managed Services Entity (MES). This was a tender put out by the government for a private sector company to run the fibre networks of 19 towns.

The MES is a key component of the government's broadband action plan. A decision on what company is chosen was to have been announced before Christmas, so that could come any day now.

The data retention aspects of a EU directive was also due to be enacted last October but after some limited consultation, there is no word from the department of justice. There is widespread industry and internet community opposition to the move. Cost and privacy concerns could yet give the minister headaches.

Following the appointment of a new chairman at ComReg, there is a vacancy for a third commissioner and it will be interesting to see who is chosen for the job. Important decisions also need to be made regarding the running of Ireland's .ie domain name.

May sees the possibility of Eircom re-entering the mobile phone market as its 'stay out' agreement comes to an end. How and when the company comes back will probably be tied to persistent rumours that the company will float on some stock exchange or other. Some analysts fear that ordinary investors won't get fooled again, but these are not the targeted buyers.

That's why it's so important for the government to press on with its broadband plans. There are enough pieces of the jigsaw in place to be able to act independently in the face of telco monopoly.

On the broadcasting side (but will some relevance to telecoms), the department of communications is due to release a report on television called the Digital Switchover Plan.

This report was commissioned to assess the options for rolling out digital television services. That alone will make it very interesting, but the minister has also said that any proposed solution which emerges should also "include the possibility of a broadband telecommunications offering". The report is being prepared by the department itself, so there are no details yet, unfortunately.

Wireless, in all its many varieties, will grow at a faster pace this year as a number of developments unfold. Three operators have now launched 3G services, albeit in test mode. Operators are cautious though, pointing to the lack of handsets. Lack of good content will be another reason put forward to explain sluggishness, but the reality may lie elsewhere.

The rise and rise of Wi-Fi threatens 3G services before they can get lift-off. As Media Lab founder Nicholas Negroponte said in 2002: "3G, in its most generous projections, will deliver data speeds of 1 megabit per second in two years. Today, Wi-Fi commonly provides 11 megabits, offering up to 54 megabits. Which standard do you think will be adopted?"

3G has a great slogan in 'Broadband to Go' but it realistically must look to its own content and services to be a success. Offering internet access will not be the killer app for 3G.

Next June the country goes to the polls in the first ever election entirely using machines instead of pen and paper. A E5m government information campaign is expected to begin shortly, but the government cannot guarantee the accuracy of the election results to the same degree as before.

The 'trust us' plea is insulting on such a fundamental issue. When the decision was made to vote with machines, the powers-that-be probably planned to dazzle the European neighbours with Ireland's 'high-tech' credentials. Well, when they're here minister ask them about their own country's e-voting plans and watch the confused look on their faces.

Internationally, there are a number of areas that should impact in 2004. Industry analysts seem upbeat on prospects for the technology sector, some even predicting a return to single-digit growth. One thing is clear, however - the lessons from the 'exuberance' period have well and truly been learned.

On that note, speculation will increase that one of the giants of internet commerce will go public and float on the stock market, possibly in May or June. The first major offering since the dotcom crash.

With a suggested market value of anything from $15bn-$25bn, it will be revealing if Google can make a success of it. Other search engines, notably Microsoft and Yahoo! have not been idle. The latter bought the Overture search engine as well key assets of search companies Altavista and FAST. There is also a wave of start-ups waiting in the wings.

The open source market should experience good growth this year, with Linux leading the charge. Getting on to the desktop is still not realistic but the operating system will continue to make gains in the server market.

Governments and public authorities are beginning to take notice of the benefits of open source software, particularly in developing countries. This in turn will lead to more opportunities for application development, particularly in office applications.

Copyright will continue to hog the headlines around the globe. Music download services like Apple's iTunes will grow significantly. Court action this year by big music in the US against Sharman, the makers of the Kazaa file-sharing software, could have significant legal consequences.

Finally, the US presidential election in November will see the web used like never before and could even play a significant role in determining the outcome. Already the success of Democratic candidate Howard Dean, is being partly attributed to his campaign's use of the internet, especially to raise funds.

Stay tuned, it's shaping up to be a memorable year.